Note: This piece was written as Deputy Editor for Idol Horse.
Sunday’s G1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe will mark the 23rd attempt by Japan to win what is arguably the world’s greatest race.
Japanese hopes are high that this might be the year to conquer their Everest. The forecast suggests only light rain at Longchamp, not enough to turn the track into a quagmire, and this year’s French, British, Irish runners appear far from invincible.
All three Japanese runners – Croix du Nord, Alohi Alii and Byzantine Dream – are entering off French stakes wins and bring attributes that could see them become the equine equivalent of Sir Edmund Hillary.
A quick glance at the form book suggests Croix du Nord is the leading contender. The Tokyo Yushun winner overcame a soft track to narrowly take the G3 Prix du Prince d’Orange (2000m) in mid-September; a firmer surface over a mile and a half will suit.
However, on one metric, Croix du Nord is the least likely of the three to land Japan’s first Arc win – the stayer Byzantine Dream is the horse to follow. That measure is bodyweight, a raceday staple in Japan and Hong Kong but largely a mystery elsewhere.